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Pre-Flop Probability for Omaha Poker Hands

By: nicole jones Unlike Holdem there is no dominating favorite pre-flop in Omaha Poker. Each player holds 4 cards, 2 from your hand and 3 from the board being used to determine the best hand at showdown. With so many ways of connecting with each flop, including straights, flushes and small 2-pair holdings – many high-pair hands are actually very vulnerable before the flop.

This article looks at some common pre-flop match ups in Omaha Poker and discusses how this should affect your overall starting hands strategy.

Omaha Pre Flop Match #1 – Premium Hands Against Junk

First we will look at the very best hands against completely random holdings. This is as strong a favorite as it is possible to be in Omaha Poker.

A-A-K-K (Double Suited) = 74,8% to beat 8-3-Q-2 (4 Suits) at 25.2%

However on a 4-5-Q (3 suits) flop the chances for A-A-K-K go down to just 47.8%, the straight and 2-pair draws giving the ‘junk hand’ winning possibilities.

A-A-J-10 (Double Suited) = 76.4% to beat 6-6-Q-2 (4 Suits) at 23.6%

Again an unfavorable flop can tip the balance Q-J-2 reducing the A-A-J-10 to just a little over 40% to win.

Omaha Pre Flop Match #2 – High Pairs against Low Straights

High pairs with no backup from straights or flush draws are not in great shape against double suited low straights as the following match up demonstrates.

A-A-8-2 (4 Suits) = 50.8% to beat 6-7-8-9 (Double Suited) at 49.2%

Where there is no card in common the Aces actually become an underdog pre-flop, for in the above example swapping the 8 for a Q make this hand only 49.6% to win pre-flop.

Omaha Pre-Flop Match #3 – Separated Suited Connectors against Low Pairs

Ideal Omaha pre-flop hands have 4 cards which work together, this example shows the difference between connected cards that are separated and those that work together.

K-Q-6-7 (4 Suits) = 40% to beat 5-5-8-8 (Double Suited) at 60%

K-Q-J-10 (Double Suited) = 61% to beat 5-5-8-8 (Double Suited) at 39%

The straight and flush possibilities, along with the high pair (or better) flops mean that the 2nd hand is a favorite against 5-5-8-8 while the first is not. The best way to look at this is that the second hand has 6 combinations of cards that can hit the flop. While the first hand has only 2 combinations that are ‘live’ – KQ and 67.